**Saudi Arabia and Pakistan Sign Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement: A New Era in Regional Security**
On September 18, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement that pledges any attack on either nation will be considered an attack on both. Triggered by Israel’s recent attack on Qatar, this pact reflects a strategic pivot by Riyadh to counter the unreliability of traditional Western security guarantees.
Hailed as a historic milestone, the agreement establishes a reciprocal defence framework committing both nations to assist each other in countering foreign aggression. This alliance signals a transformative shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and South Asia.
### Does the Pact Guarantee Automatic Military Support?
A key question arises: will this agreement automatically result in military support whenever either nation is threatened? Historical context offers insight.
Pakistan has a long history of strategic alliances — notably during the Cold War when it joined US-led security arrangements such as SEATO and CENTO. However, these alliances did not guarantee automatic military support during Pakistan’s wars with India in 1965 and 1971.
Speaking to *The News on Sunday*, Ambassador Naghmana Hashmi highlighted Pakistan’s tradition of strategic restraint. For example, Pakistan avoided deploying troops in the Korean War to prevent confrontation with China and declined to join the 2015 Saudi-led intervention in Yemen.
She further noted the complex dynamics involving Saudi Arabia’s growing ties with India. In a potential India-Pakistan conflict, Saudi support might be more diplomatic or economic than military, given that Saudi-India trade volume is 10-14 times larger than Saudi-Pakistan trade — providing significant economic leverage to deter aggression.
### Strategic Implications and Regional Reactions
Analyst Michael Kugelman observes that while the pact is unlikely to deter India’s aggressive policies outright, it strengthens Pakistan’s strategic position. Support from Saudi Arabia, China, and Turkey could bolster Pakistan’s standing and potentially influence India to reconsider its regional policies to avoid economic fallout.
Salman Bashir, former Foreign Secretary of Pakistan, characterizes the agreement as primarily a political and deterrent signal rather than an operational military integration blueprint. He states that Riyadh continues to seek a US defence pact and nuclear cooperation as part of its normalization deal with Israel, a process disrupted by the Gaza conflict.
Bashir emphasized that the pact does not indicate a departure from Saudi Arabia’s longstanding security relationship with the United States. “The US remains close to Saudi Arabia. They understand the significance and context of this agreement between two of its allies,” he said.
The pact’s primary purpose is to project solidarity and deter aggression by signaling unified retaliation against any attacks on either nation. By addressing shared threats — such as regional instability and terrorism — it aims to prevent conflicts and enhance stability through deterrence.
### Historical Defence Cooperation Between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan
Defence cooperation between the two countries dates back to the 1960s with training agreements and expanded notably after the 1979 incidents. Pakistan deployed troops, including a brigade in 1983 and over 20,000 personnel during the 1980s. During the 1990-91 Gulf War, Pakistan sent 11,000 troops to support the coalition efforts.
Collaboration continued through arms purchases and participation in the 2015 Islamic Military Counter-Terrorism Coalition led by a former Pakistani army chief. The current pact responds to a collapsing regional security framework, particularly following Israel’s attack on Qatar, a non-NATO US ally, highlighting the unreliability of American security guarantees.
### Strategic Role of Pakistan in Middle Eastern Security
In the Middle Eastern context, where many nations lack capacity to counter Israeli aggression, Pakistan stands out as a practical, credible choice—backed by a battle-hardened and professional military force.
Moreover, Pakistan holds profound reverence for the Haramain Sharifain, sacred Islamic sites in Saudi Arabia, deepening the ties between the two nations.
For Saudi Arabia, the alliance supports Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s domestic transformation agenda under Vision 2030.
### Nuclear Dimensions: Ambiguity and Deterrence
The publicly released text of the defence agreement uses general language like “strengthening joint deterrence” and avoids referencing specific weapon systems or nuclear capabilities. The notion of a “nuclear umbrella” remains speculative.
Salman Bashir affirms that Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine remains exclusively oriented toward deterring India. There is no public indication that this has changed.
Ambassador Naghmana Hashmi explained the pact’s ambiguity regarding strategic assets: “The agreement has been designed to keep the employment and deployment of strategic assets ambiguous. In case of an existential threat, depending on the situation at the time, a nuclear option cannot be ruled out.”
She clarified that nuclear weapons are unlikely to be stationed on Saudi soil, referencing US precedents of deploying nukes in Europe under strict control, even in non-NPT signatory states. Pakistan, though not an NPT signatory but respectful of its norms, mirrors this cautious stance, unlike Saudi Arabia, an NPT party.
### Pakistan’s Expanded Role and Regional Risks
The agreement formally integrates Pakistan into the Middle Eastern defence architecture, elevating its role as a regional security provider.
Salman Bashir stated, “It brings Pakistan to the fore in Middle Eastern affairs. Pakistan becomes as much a Middle Eastern power as it is in South Asia.”
However, this role carries risks. Pakistan must exercise strategic caution to avoid entanglement in intra-Arab disputes or destabilizing regional conflicts.
China’s mediation facilitated a Saudi-Iranian detente, with Iran acknowledging Saudi and Pakistani support during its conflict with Israel. Recent high-level meetings — including Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid’s urgent discussions with Iran’s Supreme Leader — underscore this shift.
Pakistan must maintain diplomatic momentum by addressing Tehran’s concerns. Ambassador Javed Hafiz reaffirmed Pakistan’s longstanding policy of avoiding aggression against Iran and maintaining a peaceful border, emphasizing that counter-terrorism activities along the border are unrelated to hostility.
### Potential Risks: Pakistan as a Target
Ambassador Hafiz warned that the defence agreement might make Pakistan a target for Israel. Given Israel’s historical opposition to Muslim nuclear powers — as seen in attacks on Iraq’s Osirak reactor and attempts against Iran — an Israeli strike on Pakistan could provoke massive retaliation and risk all-out war.
Recent intelligence suggesting Israeli use of Indian agents to prepare attacks on Qatar and Iran underlines the complex threat environment. The calculus would intensify dramatically if Israel contemplated an attack on Saudi Arabia, potentially igniting an uncontrollable regional conflict far beyond prior engagements.
### Pakistan Air Force’s Readiness Against Israel
The historical rivalry between the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) and Israel includes notable victories. During the 1967 Six-Day War, Flight Lieutenant Saif-ul Azam downed three Israeli jets in a single mission flying a Jordanian Hawker Hunter—a record highlighted by Air Marshal Arshad Aziz Malik.
In 1973, Flight Lieutenant Sattar Alvi destroyed an Israeli Phantom flying a Syrian MiG-21.
The PAF has maintained contingency plans against Israeli threats alongside preparations primarily focused on India. Israel reportedly planned at least three attacks on Pakistani nuclear facilities, prompting the PAF to rehearse corresponding defensive and retaliatory missions.
On multiple occasions, timely intelligence has helped foil potential Israeli airstrikes, including a thwarted attack involving Israeli jets using a civilian airliner for radar evasion and a separate aborted strike reaching as far as Afghanistan.
In the 1980s and before Pakistan’s 1998 nuclear tests, the PAF maintained high alert status and rehearsed risky one-way strike missions to demonstrate strategic reach and resolve.
According to Air Marshal Malik, Pakistan now possesses an arsenal of missiles and integrated air defence systems that enhance its capability to project power and respond to threats effectively.
### International Reception of the Defence Pact
Ambassador Hashmi stated that the agreement was signed with the tacit approval of both the United States and China.
China views the pact as a stabilizing force supporting its Belt and Road Initiative investments, while the US recognizes Saudi security anxieties and might tolerate the agreement given its alliances.
However, Washington will unlikely tolerate any arrangement that might threaten or undermine Israel’s security.
Diplomatic efforts will focus on clarifying expectations and operational limits to prevent misunderstandings and ensure coordinated crisis management.
### Future Prospects: Beyond Traditional Alliances
The term “strategic” in this context extends beyond nuclear issues to cover broad domains aligned with Saudi Vision 2030’s economic and social transformation.
Unlike Cold War alliances tied strictly to military objectives, this agreement could blend Saudi financing, Pakistan’s skilled workforce, and Chinese technology. Joint production of Pakistani defence systems like Al-Khalid tanks and JF-17 fighter aircraft, potentially funded by Saudi investment, could reduce reliance on US supplies.
Such cooperation may catalyze economic growth in Pakistan through job creation and vocational training aligned with both nations’ development goals, enhancing regional stability.
### Conclusion
The Saudi-Pakistan defence pact marks a significant shift in Middle Eastern and South Asian geopolitics by formally integrating Pakistan into the Gulf’s security architecture. It sends a strong message of solidarity and deterrence to adversaries, while pressuring global powers to prioritize Gulf security concerns and protecting strategic investments.
Nevertheless, Pakistan must carefully define its operational boundaries to avoid entanglement in Middle Eastern conflicts or becoming an easy target for Israeli and Western adversaries.
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*This analysis underscores the complexities of the Saudi-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement and its potential implications for regional and global security.*
https://www.thenews.com.pk/tns/detail/1346524-strategic-alignment