With two games remaining, Utah football still has all of its preseason goals (winning the Big 12 Conference and/or earning a bid to the College Football Playoff) in front of it. But they’ll need some outside help. While No. 12 Utah is currently on the outside looking in at an at-large College Football Playoff bid, the Utes can get a guaranteed spot in the CFP by winning the Big 12 Conference or increase their at-large chances by making the Big 12 championship game. The key game in the Utes’ pursuit of the playoff? This weekend’s matchup between No. 11 BYU and Cincinnati. Utah and Cincinnati winning out plus a few results involving Arizona State and Houston would punch the Utes’ ticket to Arlington to face Texas Tech. The Bearcats are on a two-game losing skid (a 45-14 loss at Utah and a 30-24 loss vs. Arizona) and are 2. 5-point underdogs when they host BYU this weekend. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Cougars a 67. 5% chance of winning to improve to 7-1 in Big 12 play. Right now, Texas Tech and BYU are the heavy favorites to play in the Big 12 championship game. Both teams control their own destinies the Red Raiders, who have a bye this week, simply have to beat 4-7 West Virginia in Morgantown in the final week of the season to clinch their spot in the Big 12 championship game for the first time in school history. Meanwhile, the Cougars can clinch a berth in the Big 12 title tilt, just a few years after joining the conference in 2023, by winning out but can also secure a spot in the championship game this weekend in one of two ways. Both scenarios involve BYU beating Cincinnati on the road (6 p. m. MST, Fox) and Arizona State losing to Colorado (6 p. m. MST, ESPN). If both of those results happen, either a Utah win vs. Kansas State (2 p. m. MST, ESPN2) or a Houston loss at TCU (3 p. m. MST, Fox) sends BYU to the Big 12 Conference title game. Texas Tech can stamp its berth in the Big 12 championship game this weekend with an Arizona State loss and BYU win over Cincinnati or losses this week by BYU, Arizona State and Utah. One positive result for the Utes from last weekend was Arizona defeating Cincinnati, handing the Bearcats their second conference loss. Utah now has five paths to the Big 12 title game (all under the assumption Texas Tech beats West Virginia and BYU beats struggling UCF in the Cougars’ home finale; if the Cougars lose out, even more possibilities open up for the Utes). No. 1 Cincinnati wins out (vs. BYU, at TCU) Utah wins out (vs. Kansas State, at Kansas) Arizona State wins out (at Colorado, vs. Arizona) In this case, there would be a four-team tie at 7-2 between Utah, BYU, Cincinnati and Arizona State that Utah wins by virtue of its conference strength of schedule. No. 2 Cincinnati wins out (vs. BYU, at TCU) Utah wins out (vs. Kansas State, at Kansas) Arizona State wins out (at Colorado, vs. Arizona) Houston wins out (vs. TCU, at Baylor) In this case, there would be a five-team tie at 7-2 between Utah, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and Arizona State that Utah wins by virtue of its conference strength of schedule. No. 3 Cincinnati wins out (vs. BYU, at TCU) Utah wins out (vs. Kansas State, at Kansas) Houston wins out (vs. TCU, at Baylor) Arizona State wins one of its last two games (at Colorado, vs. Arizona) In this case, there would be a four-team tie at 7-2 between Utah, BYU, Cincinnati and Houston that Utah wins by virtue of its conference strength of schedule. No. 4 Utah wins out (vs. Kansas State, at Kansas) Cincinnati wins out (vs. BYU, at TCU) Houston wins vs. TCU Arizona State wins one of its last two games (at Colorado, vs. Arizona) In this case, there would be a three-team tie at 7-2 between Utah, BYU and Cincinnati that Utah wins by virtue of its conference strength of schedule. No. 5 Utah wins out (vs. Kansas State, at Kansas) Cincinnati wins out (vs. BYU, at TCU) Houston loses out (vs. TCU, at Baylor) Arizona State wins one of its last two games (at Colorado, vs. Arizona) In this case, there would be a three-team tie at 7-2 between Utah, BYU and Cincinnati that Utah wins by virtue of its conference strength of schedule.
https://www.deseret.com/sports/2025/11/19/utah-utes-big-12-championship-game-scenarios-tiebreakers/
