The lesson isn’t that dumb people are overconfident, according to its co-creator. It’s that you are.
Few psychological concepts have achieved as much public recognition as the Dunning-Kruger effect. Back in 1999, David Dunning and Justin Kruger revealed that those who are least competent at a task often exhibit the highest confidence in their abilities. Conversely, the most skilled individuals tend to be the most uncertain.
In the 26 years since their landmark paper was published, scientists have debated the finer points of these findings. However, the public quickly embraced the concept—and it’s easy to understand why.
A theory suggesting that the least knowledgeable are often the loudest and most overconfident seems to shed light on much of modern life. It also serves as a handy argument to deploy during social media debates.
A quick search for “Dunning-Kruger Effect” online yields countless examples of people labeling those they disagree with as prime cases of the effect in action. It’s a satisfying way to “dunk” on your opponents.
But there’s one big problem…
https://www.sott.net/article/502597-The-Dunning-Kruger-effect-has-been-cited-for-26-years-but-ironically-most-people-still-misunderstand-it